As part of his Senior Fellowship, Matthew Elliott is researching the rise of populism and examining the underlying factors contributing to the rise (or otherwise) of populist movements across the world. Following Matthew's pre-election guide to the Dutch election, this short report provides an immediate post-election analysis of the results. A longer paper will be published later in the year with a more considered analysis of the voting patterns and the new coalition government.
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- Overnight Analysis: Dutch election [PDF]
- By Matthew Elliott
- March 2017
- Published by the Legatum Institute
- The election saw Mark Rutte’s People’s Party returned as the largest single party, significantly beating expectations, albeit with a smaller cohort of 33 seats, down from 41 in 2012 (see Table 1).
- Geert Wilders increased the Freedom Party’s representation to 20 seats, an increase on the 15 seats they won in 2012, but well short of the 25 won in 2010. The Freedom Party is now joint second-largest party in the Lower House for the first time, closely followed by two other parties, the Christian Democrats and Democrats 66 each with 19 seats.
- Labour, the current junior coalition party, slumped from 38 to 9 seats. Their performance exemplified the collapse of the traditional parties of government, whose overall share of the vote fell from 72 to 56 per cent, resulting in a lost 25 seats, falling from 109 to just 84 (see Table 2).
- The biggest beneficiary of the rise of parties who have never governed were the GreenLeft, who won 9 per cent of the vote, up from 2 per cent at the last election. Overall, parties which have never governed grew from 28 to 44 per cent of the vote (see Table 3).
- Support for a Nexit referendum strengthened, but is still weak. Pro-referendum parties gained 7 seats and now stand at 39 in total, but parties which have ruled out a referendum remained unchanged on 91. Parties which have not ruled out a referendum but nonetheless do not support one either are down 7 to 49 seats (see Table 4).
Read the full report here. A brief guide to the Dutch election: Will the rise of populism continue into 2017? here